Real-Time Guidance | SEVENTEEN (AL17)

Real-time Guidance for SEVENTEEN (AL17)

This page provides plots and information for SEVENTEEN (AL17). The left side of this page provides TCGP-generated plots of numerical guidance and other TCGP-curated data. The right side of this page provides external links to additional information and products. Most of the model guidance displayed in the plots come from modeling centers outside of NCAR, such as NOAA, other national numerical weather prediction centers, and universities. Click here for information about who contributes to TCGP. Your use of this page is governed by the UCAR Terms of Service and this site's disclaimer. To obtain help for any item on this page, click on the question mark beside that item.

Information as of the most recent model cycle ?

At 0000 UTC, 12 November 2022, SEVENTEEN (AL17) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 38.8°N and 80.9°W. The current intensity was -999 kt and the center was moving at -999 kt at a bearing of -999 degrees. The minimum central pressure was -999 mb.

Reconnaissance Aircraft Data ?

No Vortex Data Messages were found for this system.

Track guidance ?

Early cycle track guidance ?

Archive

Late cycle track guidance ?

Archive

Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) guidance ?

Late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?

Archive

Extra late EPS track guidance plotted by model ?

Archive

Intensity guidance ?

Early cycle intensity guidance ?

Archive

Late cycle experimental intensity guidance ?

Archive

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance ?

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

34-kt FHLO-GEFS^* ?

Archive

50-kt FHLO-GEFS^* ?

Archive

64-kt FHLO-GEFS^* ?

Archive

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS^*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS^*.

^*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files ?

aal172022.dat ?

track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)

bal172022.dat ?

history file (b-deck)

fal172022.dat ?

fixes file (f-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

RSMC Miami - U.S. National Hurricane Center

5-day Forecast with Uncertainty Cone

Surface Wind Field

Wind History

Probability of Tropical Storm-force Winds (34-kt)

Probability of Storm-force Winds (50-kt Winds)

Probability of Hurricane-force Winds (64-kt)

Earliest Resonable Time of Approach of 34-kt Winds (Experimental)

Most Likely Time of Approach of 34-kt Winds (Experimental)

Environmental Diagnostics ?

SHIPS diagnostic message ?

Archive

Links to External Satellite-based Products

CIRA TC Real-time Page for SEVENTEEN

Enhanced Infrared Imagery Loop (4 km Mercator)

Storm Relative Visible Imagery Loop (1 km Geostationary)

AMSU Microwave 89GHz Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Operational)

Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis (Experimental)

Aircraft-based Surface Wind Analysis

UW-CIMSS TC Satellite Products for SEVENTEEN

Satellite Consensus Intensity Estimates More info ?

Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) ?

ARCHER Center-finding Technique ?

ARCHER Eyewall Replacement Cycle Diagnostic and Prediction ?

Morphed Integrated Microwave Imagery at CIMSS (MIMIC-TC) ?

Links to Radars Within 350 km of SEVENTEEN

WV RUTHDALE/CHARLES   Loop

PA PITT/CORAOPOLIS   Loop

VA ROANOKE/FLOYD CY   Loop

KY NOCTOR/JACKSON   Loop

OH WILMINGTON   Loop

VA STERLING   Loop

OH CLEVELAND   Loop

PA RUSH/ST COLLEGE   Loop

Observations near SEVENTEEN

   NDBC Ship and Buoy Obs within 300 km

   Mesonet Observations from NWS WRH Hazard Viewer

Jonathan Vigh | NCAR Research Applications Laboratory | Acknowledgements | Disclaimer
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The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.

Real-Time Guidance | SEVENTEEN (AL17)

Real-time Guidance for SEVENTEEN (AL17)

Information as of the most recent model cycle ?

Reconnaissance Aircraft Data ?

No Vortex Data Messages were found for this system.

Track guidance ?

Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) guidance ?

Intensity guidance ?

Probabilistic wind exceedance guidance ?

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS*.

*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.

ATCF data files ?

track and intensity forecasts (a-deck)

history file (b-deck)

fixes file (f-deck)

Links to Official Warning Information

Environmental Diagnostics ?

Links to External Satellite-based Products

Links to Radars Within 350 km of SEVENTEEN

WV RUTHDALE/CHARLES Loop

PA PITT/CORAOPOLIS Loop

VA ROANOKE/FLOYD CY Loop

KY NOCTOR/JACKSON Loop

OH WILMINGTON Loop

VA STERLING Loop

OH CLEVELAND Loop

PA RUSH/ST COLLEGE Loop

Observations near SEVENTEEN

A plot of 34-kt wind exceedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 50-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 64-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-ECMWF^*.

A plot of 83-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS^*.

A plot of 96-kt wind exeedance guidance has not yet been generated for FHLO-GEFS^*.

^*The data incorporated herein is generated from the use of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT)’s Forecasts of Hurricanes Using Large-ensemble Outputs (FHLO) version 1.50, © MIT, used with permission. All Rights Reserved.