* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 77 83 90 97 100 85 68 50 34 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 71 77 83 90 97 100 85 68 50 34 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 81 83 76 60 46 44 47 48 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 24 32 31 37 41 12 12 8 5 6 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 6 17 14 -2 -2 3 11 13 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 197 199 185 188 177 160 189 141 51 304 269 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 24.4 24.4 22.2 20.2 12.3 9.6 9.4 10.7 12.5 12.8 12.1 11.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 105 107 95 88 73 65 62 67 69 69 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 96 99 90 84 71 64 60 65 66 66 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.8 -58.2 -58.5 -58.4 -57.1 -52.9 -48.8 -46.7 -48.7 -49.3 -49.4 -50.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 2.9 6.8 6.2 3.9 3.6 2.2 1.9 1.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 58 61 58 57 59 63 75 70 76 81 77 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 29 33 39 53 55 46 37 31 24 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 62 91 148 189 288 327 307 241 229 249 223 240 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 104 107 37 36 31 116 19 3 -5 17 33 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -30 -4 -60 -3 9 13 33 14 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1311 1212 1156 1059 1084 1343 1442 1349 1416 1024 576 365 325 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.0 36.3 37.6 40.4 43.1 50.5 55.8 55.9 53.8 53.3 54.5 56.2 58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.1 48.7 46.3 43.3 40.3 34.6 34.0 35.5 31.6 25.5 18.8 14.1 11.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 23 29 36 38 34 14 6 16 19 18 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 751 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -13. -19. -25. -30. -34. -38. -42. -45. -47. -48. -49. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 7. 2. -5. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 10. 22. 30. 22. 12. 3. -7. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 16. 18. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 18. 25. 33. 35. 20. 3. -15. -31. -49. -57. -62. -66. -70. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 35.0 51.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 46.0% 21.0% 9.0% 1.0% 16.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 6( 8) 12( 19) 20( 35) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 71 77 83 90 97 100 85 68 50 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 70 76 83 90 93 78 61 43 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 67 74 81 84 69 52 34 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 62 69 72 57 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT