* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 63 68 72 75 89 82 68 55 44 30 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 58 63 68 72 75 89 82 68 55 44 30 21 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 67 71 72 63 49 42 44 48 48 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 22 27 35 39 35 18 7 2 7 9 11 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -2 0 26 6 0 8 14 8 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 205 193 196 184 195 178 188 176 323 298 242 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 25.0 25.1 24.1 21.8 16.3 9.8 8.6 9.4 10.5 12.5 13.3 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 107 110 105 93 79 70 60 64 67 68 64 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 94 100 98 87 76 68 58 62 65 66 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.9 -58.2 -58.6 -58.2 -53.8 -51.9 -48.6 -48.8 -50.7 -49.0 -48.6 -48.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 4.0 7.1 5.3 3.8 3.3 1.8 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 53 60 62 57 60 62 78 74 77 79 76 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 27 30 33 43 58 51 41 33 27 21 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 72 65 115 164 258 311 306 264 274 300 305 330 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 75 103 70 48 -12 52 91 1 11 23 27 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -4 -53 -107 2 -9 13 19 25 23 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1289 1203 1134 1010 980 1108 1428 1463 1308 1446 919 658 712 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.1 35.9 36.8 38.9 40.9 47.1 54.9 58.0 55.6 54.4 54.7 55.0 54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.0 51.4 49.8 46.8 43.9 38.1 34.2 34.2 36.1 32.2 24.1 20.0 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 15 24 31 33 39 28 3 9 17 17 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -26. -30. -33. -34. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -5. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 1. -6. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 14. 34. 29. 18. 7. -1. -12. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 34. 27. 13. -0. -11. -25. -34. -40. -44. -48. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.1 53.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.06 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.85 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 96.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.03 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 8.3% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 3.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 20.0% 78.0% 58.0% 50.0% 16.0% 16.0% 4.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 63 68 72 75 89 82 68 55 44 30 21 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 59 64 68 71 85 78 64 51 40 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 60 63 77 70 56 43 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 49 52 66 59 45 32 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT