* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARTIN AL162022 11/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 61 64 70 74 91 85 85 83 80 76 69 64 59 56 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 61 64 70 74 91 85 85 83 80 76 69 64 59 56 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 59 62 67 74 76 66 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 24 19 19 23 33 41 19 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 0 0 0 2 16 10 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 227 233 214 195 187 206 171 213 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.1 22.3 15.0 10.0 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 107 109 110 96 77 69 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 95 94 94 97 99 90 74 67 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.4 -57.6 -58.1 -58.5 -58.9 -54.8 -51.7 -47.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.5 -0.5 -0.6 3.1 6.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 4 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 43 49 56 61 60 61 57 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 24 25 26 32 41 58 53 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 37 53 62 72 149 218 303 339 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 30 34 73 111 52 4 35 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 -2 4 1 -2 -59 -6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1212 1277 1291 1203 1138 1043 1211 1450 1346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 35.3 35.2 35.1 36.1 37.0 40.4 47.2 54.4 57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.2 53.8 52.3 50.5 48.7 43.5 36.7 33.9 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 17 22 34 39 25 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -8. -10. -13. -16. -19. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 9. 5. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. 5. 16. 38. 33. 33. 34. 33. 31. 29. 27. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 20. 24. 41. 35. 35. 33. 30. 26. 19. 14. 9. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.3 55.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162022 MARTIN 11/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.30 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 278.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.15 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.43 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 11.1% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.6% 1.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 5.2% 3.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 6.0% 45.0% 29.0% 18.0% 5.0% 14.0% 26.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162022 MARTIN 11/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162022 MARTIN 11/01/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 4( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 61 64 70 74 91 85 85 83 80 76 69 64 59 56 18HR AGO 50 49 53 56 59 65 69 86 80 80 78 75 71 64 59 54 51 12HR AGO 50 47 46 49 52 58 62 79 73 73 71 68 64 57 52 47 44 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 49 53 70 64 64 62 59 55 48 43 38 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT