* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/04/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 32 31 27 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 32 31 27 24 21 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 26 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 23 29 30 30 35 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 4 8 5 -3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 216 214 219 223 225 235 261 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.3 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 129 126 124 124 125 124 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 117 112 110 108 109 108 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 11 9 6 9 7 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 51 47 42 41 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -7 11 19 13 3 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 45 38 19 9 -15 -13 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 3 1 1 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 53 74 99 112 124 142 127 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.3 19.8 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.5 94.9 95.3 95.3 95.4 95.2 94.9 95.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 1 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 9 6 7 9 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -3. -9. -14. -20. -25. -27. -28. -31. -33. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 94.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/04/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.12 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.63 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.29 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 6.4% 5.2% 5.1% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 4.6% 2.3% 1.8% 0.7% 2.2% 0.8% 0.5% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.8% 2.6% 2.3% 1.3% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/04/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/04/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 33 32 31 27 24 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 29 28 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT