* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/04/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 26 25 24 22 21 19 18 18 18 17 18 19 19 V (KT) LAND 25 28 29 29 28 28 27 25 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 27 26 25 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 22 26 30 30 30 33 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 7 -2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 214 216 224 224 224 247 264 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 131 128 126 124 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 123 118 114 111 108 109 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 10 11 9 9 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 63 59 55 52 46 44 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 -8 12 22 7 17 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 82 60 44 35 22 11 -20 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 3 4 1 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -4 59 67 101 116 151 162 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.3 20.1 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.2 94.8 95.0 95.3 95.1 94.8 95.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 5 5 3 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 12 10 8 8 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -7. -12. -18. -23. -26. -27. -30. -32. -34. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -6. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.3 93.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/04/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.56 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.8% 1.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/04/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/04/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 29 29 28 28 27 25 24 22 21 20 20 20 20 21 21 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 17 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT