* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/03/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 21 19 19 19 22 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 27 28 31 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 23 22 20 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 18 19 26 31 32 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 1 -3 6 -4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 197 200 200 204 221 218 235 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 144 138 133 131 126 126 125 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 136 128 121 118 111 109 110 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 10 8 8 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 62 59 53 47 48 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -9 0 4 8 30 13 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 72 78 67 56 40 23 -14 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 -2 -2 1 4 1 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -67 -26 33 61 68 106 123 120 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.0 19.3 20.3 20.6 19.9 19.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.7 92.8 93.8 94.5 95.1 95.6 95.6 95.2 95.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 7 6 4 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 13 11 10 10 13 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -22. -23. -26. -28. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -4. -8. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.0 91.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.32 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 4.6% 4.2% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 2.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.5% 1.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/03/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 27 28 31 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 26 29 28 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 25 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT