* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/03/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 21 20 21 24 25 24 21 22 21 23 23 22 19 17 19 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 31 31 35 36 34 31 32 32 34 34 32 30 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 30 27 25 23 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 21 20 20 30 29 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 4 -3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 193 200 204 207 219 224 222 243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 145 140 134 127 124 125 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 136 130 123 114 108 109 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 8 8 7 6 11 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 70 66 62 55 50 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -14 -11 -8 -3 15 23 13 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 73 62 71 48 44 21 -20 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 4 0 -2 3 2 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -107 -61 -43 15 73 113 136 145 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.9 18.1 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.7 20.2 20.2 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.5 91.5 92.5 93.3 94.1 95.0 95.2 95.1 94.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 4 1 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 18 20 15 12 7 9 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 26. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -20. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -11. -10. -6. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -9. -6. -5. -6. -9. -8. -9. -7. -7. -8. -11. -13. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.9 90.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.81 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 3.4% 2.4% 1.6% 0.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/03/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 31 31 35 36 34 31 32 32 34 34 32 30 28 29 18HR AGO 30 29 28 31 31 35 36 34 31 32 32 34 34 32 30 28 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 29 33 34 32 29 30 30 32 32 30 28 26 27 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 24 25 23 20 21 21 23 23 21 19 17 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT