* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/03/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 56 53 49 45 42 39 38 39 40 40 41 41 39 V (KT) LAND 60 46 38 33 31 31 27 22 20 17 15 16 17 18 18 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 60 46 37 33 30 32 32 31 29 26 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 23 24 24 23 31 30 37 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -2 2 -4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 170 169 183 193 195 212 226 231 229 246 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.7 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 153 152 145 135 128 125 126 127 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 139 145 144 136 123 115 110 109 112 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 7 8 6 11 6 9 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 70 70 65 57 50 46 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 10 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 -11 -10 -7 3 22 30 16 29 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 84 69 64 73 76 48 35 24 -1 -16 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 3 0 1 2 -2 1 0 -1 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -42 -148 -109 -67 -38 62 116 144 177 173 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.8 19.7 20.5 20.6 20.2 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.6 90.6 91.6 92.7 94.1 94.9 95.3 95.0 94.8 94.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 9 7 5 2 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 8 4 15 18 12 7 11 11 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -17. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. -22. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.5 88.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.34 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 192.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.44 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 15.3% 9.8% 8.8% 6.6% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 14.5% 6.4% 3.5% 4.4% 4.3% 2.5% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 10.5% 5.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.7% 0.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/03/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/03/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 46 38 33 31 31 27 22 20 17 15 16 17 18 18 19 17 18HR AGO 60 59 51 46 44 44 40 35 33 30 28 29 30 31 31 32 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 51 49 49 45 40 38 35 33 34 35 36 36 37 35 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 48 44 39 37 34 32 33 34 35 35 36 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT