* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/02/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 73 72 68 63 58 55 50 45 42 42 44 45 47 49 48 V (KT) LAND 70 58 45 37 32 29 28 24 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 17 18 17 V (KT) LGEM 70 60 46 37 33 29 32 32 31 29 26 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 17 21 26 23 26 28 28 34 25 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -3 -2 -6 0 -3 1 3 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 171 175 169 179 188 205 211 226 220 237 251 258 258 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.0 28.4 27.7 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.8 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 148 153 151 142 131 126 127 127 132 134 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 139 140 144 142 132 120 112 110 113 118 119 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 6 5 7 7 9 9 8 8 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 68 71 71 73 70 59 54 46 46 44 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 10 8 6 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 8 5 -11 -4 0 3 32 12 21 4 36 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 91 66 54 56 61 74 49 28 19 -6 4 -10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 3 6 -1 1 4 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 53 -53 -159 -123 -100 -15 88 136 167 195 139 54 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.7 18.3 19.3 20.2 20.9 20.6 19.6 18.8 18.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.7 89.7 90.6 91.5 93.2 94.5 95.2 95.3 94.8 94.1 93.8 94.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 4 1 4 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 26 8 4 5 16 10 9 16 10 9 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -13. -11. -9. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -2. -7. -12. -15. -20. -25. -28. -28. -26. -25. -23. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.3 87.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 17.5% 11.1% 10.1% 7.5% 10.0% 8.3% 0.0% Logistic: 5.6% 21.7% 10.0% 4.9% 4.8% 6.9% 4.2% 1.6% Bayesian: 3.2% 14.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.4% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 7.7% 17.7% 8.2% 5.4% 4.2% 6.7% 4.3% 0.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/02/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 58 45 37 32 29 28 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 56 48 43 40 39 35 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 58 53 50 49 45 41 21 21 21 21 21 38 39 38 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 52 51 47 43 23 23 23 23 23 40 41 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT