* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 74 73 71 65 62 59 56 52 50 50 51 53 54 56 54 V (KT) LAND 70 73 57 44 37 30 30 28 25 21 19 19 20 21 23 25 23 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 60 45 37 30 32 32 33 32 30 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 18 20 22 25 20 27 29 32 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -2 0 -4 -4 -1 1 -2 3 -1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 174 156 161 169 182 191 215 220 234 227 236 243 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 147 148 153 146 137 130 126 128 132 133 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 142 138 139 144 137 126 118 111 114 119 116 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 7 6 5 7 6 10 5 8 6 10 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 68 71 70 71 66 58 49 45 48 45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 6 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 13 10 8 -9 -9 6 25 29 25 32 19 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 81 70 52 48 49 33 32 16 -9 -2 6 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 9 3 0 5 -1 1 4 -1 -3 -1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 152 48 -64 -159 -138 -78 36 95 143 168 122 52 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.5 20.8 20.6 19.4 18.8 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.8 88.8 89.7 90.6 92.4 93.9 94.9 95.5 95.1 94.1 93.7 94.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 8 7 7 3 5 6 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 25 8 4 21 13 8 16 11 10 13 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -18. -20. -20. -19. -17. -16. -14. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.1 86.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.42 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 227.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.46 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.4% 19.2% 12.5% 10.2% 7.6% 10.1% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 8.6% 29.3% 15.5% 8.4% 7.8% 8.5% 6.7% 3.0% Bayesian: 4.6% 19.7% 5.7% 2.1% 0.5% 3.4% 3.0% 0.2% Consensus: 9.5% 22.7% 11.2% 6.9% 5.3% 7.3% 6.2% 1.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 73 57 44 37 30 30 28 25 21 19 19 20 21 23 25 23 18HR AGO 70 69 53 40 33 26 26 24 21 17 15 15 16 17 19 21 19 12HR AGO 70 67 66 53 46 39 39 37 34 30 28 28 29 30 32 34 32 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 53 46 46 44 41 37 35 35 36 37 39 41 39 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT