* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 67 63 61 58 56 54 51 50 51 52 53 55 54 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 55 43 32 28 30 28 26 23 22 21 24 25 26 26 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 66 57 44 32 28 31 31 30 29 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 15 18 21 24 23 23 27 21 25 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -4 -2 -4 -7 1 -1 2 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 175 166 147 148 162 186 199 209 225 218 221 233 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.1 28.8 28.7 29.1 28.7 28.2 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 152 153 148 146 152 146 138 129 126 127 135 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 145 146 140 137 143 135 125 115 109 111 121 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 7 6 7 7 9 9 8 6 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 62 64 67 70 69 72 63 58 51 51 49 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 9 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 18 14 12 8 0 4 10 43 24 38 19 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 103 97 96 68 57 65 45 35 34 -11 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 7 2 3 0 0 0 3 -1 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 127 162 64 -37 -138 -122 -70 46 98 123 126 105 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.2 17.4 17.5 17.6 17.5 17.9 18.7 19.4 19.7 19.7 19.2 18.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.6 87.6 88.6 89.5 91.2 92.7 93.9 94.5 94.7 94.6 94.1 93.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 3 0 1 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 62 37 31 27 9 4 20 13 9 8 8 10 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -9. -8. -7. -5. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.0 85.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 33.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.22 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 237.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.69 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.58 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 26.3% 16.8% 9.9% 7.3% 10.8% 10.3% 8.4% Logistic: 6.8% 29.0% 13.1% 4.6% 3.5% 5.3% 7.4% 6.9% Bayesian: 4.8% 17.1% 4.0% 0.7% 0.4% 1.4% 2.4% 1.4% Consensus: 6.9% 24.1% 11.3% 5.1% 3.7% 5.8% 6.7% 5.6% DTOPS: 16.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 2( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 63 65 55 43 32 28 30 28 26 23 22 21 24 25 26 26 18HR AGO 60 59 61 51 39 28 24 26 24 22 19 18 17 20 21 22 22 12HR AGO 60 57 56 46 34 23 19 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 38 27 23 25 23 21 18 17 16 19 20 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT