* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 71 75 77 78 74 70 65 58 53 49 48 50 52 54 52 V (KT) LAND 60 66 71 75 65 40 31 28 28 21 17 N/A N/A N/A 15 17 15 V (KT) LGEM 60 66 71 74 66 40 31 28 31 32 32 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 17 21 21 22 18 23 19 26 22 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -3 -4 0 -4 -3 0 4 2 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 175 159 139 145 166 177 202 209 210 205 213 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 27.8 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 152 152 149 150 151 144 132 128 129 134 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 146 144 141 141 141 134 120 113 113 119 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 7 5 7 5 10 5 7 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 61 63 66 68 70 73 71 63 56 53 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 13 13 12 9 7 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 22 26 21 10 21 19 37 48 43 47 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 128 122 119 109 114 61 68 42 50 53 27 -2 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 2 4 4 6 0 3 -1 0 2 -2 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 108 139 74 -32 -171 -144 -74 46 91 148 122 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.4 19.8 19.4 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.1 85.3 86.5 87.5 88.5 90.0 91.5 93.0 94.4 94.7 94.3 93.9 93.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 8 5 2 2 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 58 37 31 30 10 4 17 10 8 9 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 15. 17. 18. 14. 10. 5. -2. -7. -11. -12. -10. -8. -6. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.7 84.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 9.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.54 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.65 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 232.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 118.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.69 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.3% 45.4% 29.7% 20.2% 10.7% 18.2% 11.8% 10.9% Logistic: 10.4% 40.1% 19.9% 9.8% 6.2% 7.6% 9.9% 10.8% Bayesian: 9.8% 44.2% 16.1% 2.7% 2.4% 3.3% 4.0% 1.6% Consensus: 12.5% 43.2% 21.9% 10.9% 6.4% 9.7% 8.6% 7.8% DTOPS: 22.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/02/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 66 71 75 65 40 31 28 28 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 64 68 58 33 24 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 60 50 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 40 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT