* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/01/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 55 59 63 66 70 67 65 60 57 55 54 54 56 58 61 59 V (KT) LAND 50 55 59 63 66 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 54 58 61 63 53 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 12 13 15 20 19 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -2 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 189 178 165 157 150 172 193 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 156 154 152 149 150 151 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 151 149 145 139 141 141 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 6 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 59 61 64 67 72 72 74 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 12 12 9 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 13 14 23 25 21 23 32 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 123 118 106 104 85 64 82 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 0 1 4 4 2 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 182 111 102 122 117 -62 -161 -144 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.7 16.8 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.0 17.3 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.5 83.6 84.8 86.0 87.1 88.8 90.1 91.8 93.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 11 10 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 49 56 45 30 29 14 4 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 13. 16. 18. 20. 21. 23. 23. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -9. -15. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -19. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 16. 20. 17. 15. 10. 7. 5. 4. 4. 6. 9. 11. 9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.5 82.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.30 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 4.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 47.3% 30.1% 19.7% 11.2% 23.7% 26.9% 14.5% Logistic: 19.1% 61.3% 39.5% 23.1% 17.7% 24.0% 23.6% 32.3% Bayesian: 13.5% 56.6% 29.0% 5.9% 4.2% 10.3% 6.8% 6.9% Consensus: 15.9% 55.1% 32.9% 16.2% 11.0% 19.3% 19.1% 17.9% DTOPS: 18.0% 21.0% 14.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/01/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 55 59 63 66 53 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 60 47 30 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 40 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT