* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 59 65 67 65 62 61 59 59 60 63 64 66 65 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 59 65 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 50 52 55 60 43 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 8 7 18 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 0 1 -4 -2 -3 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 249 210 195 182 154 131 153 177 192 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 157 155 153 151 149 150 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 154 151 147 142 139 141 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.7 -53.4 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 6 6 7 5 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 59 62 64 69 73 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 11 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 30 20 21 26 29 31 35 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 54 108 126 137 148 96 81 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -1 2 6 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 256 171 101 81 99 44 -97 -196 -185 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 16.7 16.9 16.9 16.9 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.4 83.6 84.8 85.9 87.8 89.3 90.7 92.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 8 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 42 47 52 43 34 28 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 21. 23. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 14. 20. 22. 20. 17. 16. 14. 14. 15. 18. 19. 21. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 16.1 81.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 8.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 4.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 187.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 3.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.68 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.7% 45.0% 29.5% 20.0% 12.9% 26.1% 27.0% 15.7% Logistic: 19.0% 56.7% 39.3% 25.5% 16.2% 30.9% 26.8% 39.0% Bayesian: 9.6% 50.6% 35.3% 7.8% 3.1% 11.8% 11.7% 7.6% Consensus: 13.5% 50.8% 34.7% 17.8% 10.7% 22.9% 21.9% 20.8% DTOPS: 7.0% 18.0% 10.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 2( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 53 56 59 65 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 48 51 54 60 40 28 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 47 53 33 21 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 38 44 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT