* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 51 57 63 63 63 57 56 57 58 60 62 64 63 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 51 57 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 44 46 50 42 31 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 10 10 13 18 18 18 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 -8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 272 251 209 184 180 137 136 157 183 193 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.8 29.0 28.9 28.4 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 161 158 156 148 147 150 148 140 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 160 159 155 151 141 138 140 137 128 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 6 8 6 7 6 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 58 58 59 62 66 70 72 73 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 10 10 12 9 8 4 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 36 30 25 27 24 28 29 29 27 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 13 49 98 119 112 103 90 86 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 307 246 162 91 89 96 -77 -180 -189 -158 -118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.0 16.9 16.9 17.0 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.9 81.2 82.5 83.8 85.0 87.3 89.0 90.4 91.8 92.9 93.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 39 45 50 56 26 27 10 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 25. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -9. -14. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 23. 23. 23. 17. 16. 17. 18. 20. 22. 24. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.9 79.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 174.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 23.5% 13.5% 9.7% 7.4% 12.1% 12.2% 14.9% Logistic: 11.1% 44.4% 29.2% 16.1% 9.5% 20.7% 23.6% 36.9% Bayesian: 3.4% 29.7% 11.4% 2.4% 0.9% 5.7% 6.0% 4.2% Consensus: 6.9% 32.5% 18.1% 9.4% 5.9% 12.8% 13.9% 18.7% DTOPS: 4.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/01/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 45 48 51 57 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 44 47 53 42 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 42 48 37 24 20 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 33 39 28 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT