* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 11/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 46 49 51 55 59 61 60 59 57 58 60 63 65 67 67 V (KT) LAND 40 43 46 49 51 55 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 48 50 53 56 36 29 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 8 6 8 11 11 16 19 20 22 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -4 -2 0 -3 0 -3 -6 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 278 244 203 197 167 141 158 173 196 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.7 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 163 161 158 150 148 149 150 144 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 162 160 155 145 140 140 140 131 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.5 -53.5 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 8 8 6 7 5 7 5 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 59 58 61 62 69 72 73 70 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 43 37 29 22 19 23 21 19 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 19 6 38 77 82 99 80 61 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 0 -1 8 8 0 3 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 281 330 232 152 84 127 -10 -131 -178 -140 -82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.0 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.8 80.0 81.3 82.6 83.9 86.4 88.3 89.9 91.5 92.5 93.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 45 38 45 50 32 25 19 4 8 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 19. 21. 20. 19. 17. 18. 20. 23. 25. 27. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 78.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 2.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.36 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 26.9% 17.2% 10.2% 7.7% 14.1% 15.9% 15.7% Logistic: 13.2% 46.5% 33.5% 17.2% 9.1% 24.3% 32.5% 35.6% Bayesian: 5.4% 51.6% 24.2% 6.4% 2.0% 14.2% 13.4% 7.0% Consensus: 8.5% 41.7% 25.0% 11.2% 6.2% 17.6% 20.6% 19.4% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 11/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 11/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 43 46 49 51 55 52 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 42 45 47 51 48 32 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 40 37 36 39 41 45 42 26 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 36 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT