* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 10/31/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 43 45 47 52 56 58 56 58 60 63 65 68 70 74 75 V (KT) LAND 40 42 43 45 47 52 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 44 46 48 51 53 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 9 7 5 6 10 14 18 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -5 -5 -3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 298 286 269 240 195 186 151 157 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.5 29.2 28.8 28.9 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 159 159 163 161 155 148 150 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 157 160 159 151 141 143 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 6 8 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 57 58 58 58 61 68 74 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 10 9 9 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 46 47 38 33 25 25 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 -1 8 10 54 83 72 60 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 2 0 6 9 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 263 281 333 225 157 101 96 -60 -204 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.8 16.9 16.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 77.8 79.0 80.2 81.4 82.6 85.1 87.3 89.0 90.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 81 54 42 40 45 59 25 29 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 616 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 12. 16. 18. 16. 18. 20. 23. 25. 28. 30. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.4 77.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 10/31/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.13 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 14.4% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.1% 12.3% 18.6% Logistic: 4.8% 25.9% 16.3% 4.9% 1.9% 9.0% 20.3% 32.8% Bayesian: 1.6% 11.9% 5.8% 0.2% 0.3% 2.9% 20.5% 5.5% Consensus: 3.7% 17.4% 10.3% 1.7% 0.7% 7.3% 17.7% 19.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 10/31/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 10/31/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 43 45 47 52 56 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 40 42 44 49 53 42 30 26 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 40 45 49 38 26 22 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 32 37 41 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT