* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LISA AL152022 10/31/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 36 37 39 44 48 54 56 52 52 55 58 61 63 66 68 V (KT) LAND 35 36 36 37 39 44 48 54 38 30 31 34 37 40 42 45 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 37 39 41 43 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 8 8 8 10 14 19 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -2 0 -3 1 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 290 295 285 260 244 171 171 155 164 174 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.8 29.0 28.6 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 159 159 161 157 152 148 151 145 162 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 155 155 158 154 146 140 143 138 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.0 -53.4 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 6 7 5 7 5 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 56 58 58 59 62 63 70 72 74 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 39 42 44 40 30 23 33 25 34 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 0 4 16 27 90 77 75 31 64 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 3 4 0 8 8 1 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 250 235 251 305 256 94 122 34 -93 -172 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.5 16.9 16.9 16.5 15.9 15.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.8 78.8 80.0 81.1 83.7 86.0 87.9 89.7 91.4 93.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 12 12 11 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 94 81 59 47 39 50 43 25 25 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -5. -7. -12. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 20. 21. 17. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 31. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.5 76.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 LISA 10/31/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.78 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.98 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 12.7% 8.2% 7.1% 5.4% 9.4% 11.4% 16.6% Logistic: 1.8% 6.4% 3.4% 0.6% 0.1% 2.2% 7.7% 13.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.4% Consensus: 2.3% 7.4% 4.3% 2.6% 1.9% 4.1% 6.6% 10.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 LISA 10/31/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 LISA 10/31/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 36 37 39 44 48 54 38 30 31 34 37 40 42 45 47 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 37 42 46 52 36 28 29 32 35 38 40 43 45 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 39 43 49 33 25 26 29 32 35 37 40 42 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 36 42 26 18 19 22 25 28 30 33 35 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT