* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152022 10/31/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 42 48 56 64 67 60 57 59 61 64 66 69 70 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 42 48 56 64 57 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 41 45 50 46 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 12 7 8 7 10 15 16 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -3 -6 -3 -2 -3 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 287 304 301 269 242 208 185 149 139 163 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.5 29.3 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 158 160 159 161 157 150 151 151 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 153 155 154 157 153 143 145 144 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 8 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 58 59 61 63 67 70 72 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 37 37 41 25 22 34 38 34 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -9 0 13 19 73 112 104 96 44 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 0 1 0 2 3 0 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 234 206 181 192 237 243 151 161 -19 -141 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.3 16.4 16.8 17.2 17.2 16.8 16.2 15.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.5 76.5 77.5 78.5 79.5 81.9 84.4 86.5 88.5 90.3 92.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 82 98 90 63 45 51 69 36 28 27 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 716 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 29. 32. 25. 22. 24. 26. 29. 31. 34. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.8 75.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/31/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 75.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 13.9% 8.8% 7.9% 6.0% 9.8% 11.7% 20.0% Logistic: 2.0% 8.4% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 2.9% 9.1% 19.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% Consensus: 2.5% 7.8% 4.7% 3.1% 2.1% 4.3% 7.1% 13.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/31/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/31/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 42 48 56 64 57 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 40 46 54 62 55 36 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 36 42 50 58 51 32 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 42 50 43 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT