* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152022 10/31/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 42 48 55 65 70 67 59 61 63 66 69 73 74 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 42 48 55 65 70 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 45 49 55 60 49 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 10 7 6 9 11 17 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 -6 -3 -3 -3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 290 309 301 284 236 174 168 143 160 178 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.9 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 156 156 160 159 159 155 150 151 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 150 150 155 155 154 149 143 144 139 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 8 5 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 56 58 59 59 63 66 70 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 13 14 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 52 49 42 40 35 19 22 36 31 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 3 -9 -1 9 24 110 119 89 52 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -1 1 0 3 4 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 263 241 201 174 168 263 224 156 127 -44 -182 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.3 16.8 17.3 17.3 17.1 16.6 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.4 75.2 76.0 77.0 77.9 80.3 82.8 84.9 87.0 88.9 90.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 12 11 11 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 77 91 97 79 46 56 75 28 30 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 1. -2. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 13. 20. 30. 35. 32. 24. 26. 28. 32. 34. 38. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 74.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/31/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 16.4% 10.1% 8.9% 6.8% 10.4% 12.4% 30.4% Logistic: 2.8% 11.7% 7.0% 1.7% 0.4% 4.2% 10.0% 22.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 4.7% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2% 0.3% Consensus: 3.1% 11.0% 6.1% 3.7% 2.5% 5.1% 7.9% 17.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/31/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/31/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 42 48 55 65 70 54 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 45 52 62 67 51 33 27 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 40 47 57 62 46 28 22 20 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 40 50 55 39 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT