* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN AL152022 10/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 49 55 62 67 66 64 58 55 52 56 59 63 64 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 49 55 62 67 66 51 35 29 32 35 39 42 43 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 42 44 47 52 58 60 60 47 33 29 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 12 8 11 13 17 18 15 15 12 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 -4 0 3 1 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 267 283 289 273 242 216 203 153 159 154 148 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 154 157 155 161 160 156 151 150 146 146 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 143 147 151 149 157 158 152 145 142 139 140 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 6 7 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 53 55 54 58 58 62 65 66 70 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 14 16 16 15 14 10 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 50 51 56 51 50 36 21 33 33 30 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 14 7 1 2 14 63 78 43 23 26 96 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 0 1 4 0 -6 1 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 261 234 228 165 111 98 341 251 123 -53 -172 -97 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 73.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 8 10 10 12 14 13 12 9 9 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 59 66 82 88 61 68 74 29 29 13 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 1. 0. -6. -11. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 27. 32. 31. 29. 23. 20. 17. 21. 24. 28. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.7 73.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.46 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 149.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.34 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 20.7% 11.2% 9.8% 7.3% 11.0% 12.4% 21.6% Logistic: 6.0% 27.3% 23.6% 11.0% 2.2% 11.1% 7.5% 16.1% Bayesian: 1.0% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.7% Consensus: 4.7% 16.4% 12.2% 7.1% 3.2% 7.5% 6.7% 12.8% DTOPS: 3.0% 10.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152022 FIFTEEN 10/30/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 46 49 55 62 67 66 51 35 29 32 35 39 42 43 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 50 57 62 61 46 30 24 27 30 34 37 38 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 44 51 56 55 40 24 18 21 24 28 31 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 41 46 45 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT