* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN AL112022 09/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 22 30 38 48 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 3 2 -1 -1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 247 252 242 255 273 267 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.2 27.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 125 124 125 129 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 121 120 119 117 116 120 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.1 -55.6 -56.0 -56.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 46 46 45 44 45 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 27 18 6 -3 -40 -63 -50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 14 13 4 13 -5 7 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 9 10 16 14 17 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1905 1993 2079 2142 2212 2321 2357 2269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.6 18.5 19.6 20.7 23.1 26.0 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.2 35.9 36.7 37.5 38.3 39.5 39.7 38.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 13 13 14 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 11 13 11 9 6 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -7. -12. -17. -21. -24. -26. -29. -31. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.7 35.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112022 ELEVEN 09/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.44 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 224.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.52 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 5.5% 4.8% 4.8% 3.1% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112022 ELEVEN 09/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112022 ELEVEN 09/29/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 29 29 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 26 25 25 26 28 18HR AGO 30 29 29 28 28 28 28 28 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 25 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 24 23 22 22 22 21 21 22 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 19 18 17 17 17 16 16 17 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT