* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102022 09/25/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 23 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 23 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 22 19 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 40 48 54 58 62 73 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -4 -6 -8 -8 -15 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 228 231 234 235 225 225 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.7 24.6 24.6 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 101 99 99 99 104 105 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 93 89 87 86 86 92 93 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -54.7 -54.4 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 7 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 43 41 44 43 48 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 10 8 8 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 65 61 56 60 52 45 46 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 15 11 48 42 21 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 1 0 4 10 11 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 377 388 407 427 441 541 704 860 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.8 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.3 25.6 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.9 22.6 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 5 4 3 3 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 699 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 15. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 1. -9. -26. -40. -54. -67. -74. -80. -89. -95.-100.-101. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -9. -19. -31. -43. -55. -62. -67. -76. -82. -88. -89. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 23.3 20.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102022 HERMINE 09/25/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.53 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102022 HERMINE 09/25/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 23 23 23 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT