* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102022 09/24/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 34 33 31 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 34 34 33 31 28 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 32 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 24 31 36 43 58 64 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 -2 -1 -7 -9 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 242 238 233 232 237 226 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 25.3 25.1 24.9 24.6 24.7 25.0 25.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 107 105 103 100 99 103 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 97 93 91 88 86 90 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 48 45 42 41 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 10 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 60 65 66 58 52 53 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 34 41 28 18 43 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 14 10 2 -2 11 14 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 374 372 379 392 415 446 528 663 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.4 22.3 23.1 23.7 24.3 25.0 25.4 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.6 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.1 20.0 20.7 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 7 6 5 3 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 9 CX,CY: 1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -10. -24. -33. -43. -51. -56. -59. -65. -69. -72. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -27. -35. -44. -52. -57. -61. -67. -70. -73. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 21.4 20.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102022 HERMINE 09/24/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.26 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.63 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102022 HERMINE 09/24/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 34 34 33 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 28 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT