* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102022 09/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 33 32 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 33 32 31 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 34 33 32 30 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 15 17 25 32 44 56 68 66 59 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 0 -1 -1 -6 -12 -11 -8 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 217 221 232 235 233 236 222 226 230 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 25.8 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.1 24.9 25.2 25.2 25.3 25.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 111 109 107 106 103 101 105 107 107 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 101 99 96 95 91 88 93 95 94 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.8 -55.0 -55.5 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 50 46 44 41 42 40 41 44 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 13 13 12 9 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 63 60 55 61 67 49 53 32 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 47 20 19 24 15 52 20 25 15 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 8 6 7 7 0 7 8 17 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 421 419 436 427 423 450 454 538 762 955 1125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.5 21.3 22.1 22.9 24.2 24.8 25.6 26.2 27.1 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.0 20.9 20.6 20.2 20.7 22.9 24.6 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 5 3 7 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -5. -16. -28. -39. -48. -52. -56. -61. -65. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -16. -19. -21. -24. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -4. -7. -13. -21. -30. -38. -46. -50. -54. -59. -62. -64. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.7 20.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102022 HERMINE 09/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.31 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.0% 8.2% 3.0% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 3.0% 1.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102022 HERMINE 09/24/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 33 32 31 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 32 31 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 29 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 21 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT