* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102022 09/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 37 35 34 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 37 35 34 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 37 37 36 33 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 17 21 28 38 51 59 62 59 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 1 -1 -1 -5 -9 -6 -7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 225 214 222 230 237 236 233 231 232 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.2 25.7 25.5 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.4 25.4 25.3 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 115 111 109 105 104 103 106 107 107 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 114 106 101 98 94 92 89 92 94 96 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -53.3 -53.8 -54.8 -54.7 -55.1 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.1 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 49 44 41 36 36 40 45 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 18 17 15 14 11 9 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 65 78 75 74 73 88 62 60 49 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 44 47 21 27 18 45 32 -1 9 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 13 12 6 7 7 8 19 28 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 446 432 437 432 434 447 479 534 649 833 1082 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.6 22.4 23.6 24.4 24.6 25.1 25.9 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.7 20.9 21.2 21.1 21.1 20.9 20.8 21.3 22.3 23.9 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 7 5 3 4 7 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -23. -34. -44. -48. -51. -56. -59. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -14. -18. -20. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -7. -14. -23. -31. -40. -44. -47. -51. -54. -55. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.9 20.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102022 HERMINE 09/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.41 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.31 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.33 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 4.9% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102022 HERMINE 09/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 37 37 35 34 28 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 34 32 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 31 29 28 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT