* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL102022 09/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 39 38 36 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 39 38 36 31 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 37 38 38 38 35 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 18 24 35 44 57 59 64 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 5 1 -1 -4 -2 -7 -1 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 209 213 211 213 235 232 234 229 232 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.1 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.4 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 112 110 108 103 104 105 108 110 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 113 103 100 96 91 91 91 96 102 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -56.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 59 56 53 47 41 36 37 41 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 19 19 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 77 72 84 76 77 81 77 63 67 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 88 61 57 20 31 11 48 31 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 11 13 9 5 10 0 13 19 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 425 433 428 431 449 449 471 507 567 838 1244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 19.2 20.1 20.9 21.7 22.7 23.5 24.1 24.4 25.3 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.1 21.3 21.2 21.2 21.3 21.8 24.3 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 7 4 3 3 7 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -10. -20. -31. -41. -44. -47. -52. -55. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -18. -22. -25. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -10. -18. -28. -36. -39. -41. -45. -47. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 18.2 20.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102022 HERMINE 09/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.41 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 7.1% 5.9% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 2.4% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.2% 2.4% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102022 HERMINE 09/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 38 39 38 36 31 25 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 35 33 28 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 31 29 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 24 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT