* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 10/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 43 37 32 30 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 39 34 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 41 43 46 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 -1 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 223 222 219 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.9 26.3 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 113 116 118 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 96 97 97 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.4 2.1 2.2 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 43 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 26 22 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 81 82 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 72 58 62 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 47 35 27 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -117 -226 -281 -344 -392 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.7 35.8 36.8 37.6 38.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.6 79.8 80.0 80.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 15 CX,CY: -2/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -30. -36. -42. -47. -52. -59. -64. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -8. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -18. -20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -9. -10. -12. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -18. -20. -21. -28. -36. -43. -48. -54. -58. -64. -72. -80. -87. -90. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 34.7 79.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 10/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 45.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 215.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.16 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 99.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.01 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 10/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 10/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 31 29 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 38 38 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 41 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 38 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT