* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 67 60 45 31 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 57 44 32 29 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 76 74 58 45 32 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 37 36 43 39 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 -1 0 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 243 233 226 227 219 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.9 27.3 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 128 116 118 116 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 130 111 101 100 96 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.9 2.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 41 44 42 42 42 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 31 27 17 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 88 94 88 64 88 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 69 80 97 85 63 63 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 42 47 48 55 42 28 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 211 171 67 -42 -151 -339 -445 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.6 34.7 36.4 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.1 79.2 79.6 80.0 80.7 81.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 76 54 13 2 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -24. -26. -28. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -19. -24. -28. -31. -32. -34. -35. -36. -38. -40. -42. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -3. -13. -21. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -15. -30. -44. -50. -55. -59. -64. -67. -71. -74. -78. -81. -85. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.2 79.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 38.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.82 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 399.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.52 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.09 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/30/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 0( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 72 57 44 32 29 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 72 57 44 32 29 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 56 43 31 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 52 40 37 36 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT