* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/30/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 70 69 66 61 47 32 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 70 69 66 49 34 29 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 72 71 66 49 34 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 41 39 42 45 38 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 6 -2 -2 0 -1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 222 231 239 231 225 219 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 28.6 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 146 118 117 117 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 132 132 125 102 100 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.3 1.6 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 37 41 43 44 43 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 32 30 20 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 79 88 99 78 78 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 119 71 68 96 79 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 42 50 52 43 29 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 163 210 136 13 -89 -284 -402 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.7 30.7 31.7 32.9 34.1 35.9 37.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.3 79.1 79.4 79.7 80.5 81.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 11 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 82 36 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 9 CX,CY: 5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -19. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -17. -22. -26. -29. -32. -34. -36. -37. -40. -41. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 0. -1. -9. -20. -23. -26. -27. -29. -30. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -4. -9. -23. -38. -45. -49. -53. -58. -61. -64. -67. -70. -72. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.7 79.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/30/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 363.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.17 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/30/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/30/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 70 69 66 49 34 29 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 68 65 48 33 28 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 63 46 31 26 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 43 28 23 22 22 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT