* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 62 61 53 37 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 62 61 38 30 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 66 65 63 59 37 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 35 40 40 40 41 41 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 7 5 -1 0 -1 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 222 235 246 234 223 214 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.2 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 153 140 119 119 116 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 130 131 119 102 100 96 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -49.8 -49.9 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.8 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 37 36 37 40 41 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 30 31 27 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 124 131 83 97 103 70 95 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 149 112 68 69 102 56 62 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 19 39 55 53 45 21 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 65 123 174 117 21 -194 -360 -488 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.5 32.5 34.7 36.2 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.1 79.9 79.6 79.8 79.9 80.6 81.4 82.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 10 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 68 66 74 26 3 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -14. -18. -23. -28. -30. -33. -35. -37. -40. -42. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -3. -17. -25. -28. -29. -31. -32. -32. -31. -30. -29. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -4. -12. -28. -40. -44. -48. -53. -56. -60. -63. -66. -68. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 28.9 80.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 347.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.58 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.80 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.25 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.60 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/29/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 64 62 61 38 30 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 60 37 29 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 35 27 25 25 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 31 23 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT