* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 53 51 49 49 50 39 26 23 22 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 56 55 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 48 44 41 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 28 36 44 39 44 36 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 7 6 2 0 -2 -1 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 229 227 239 242 223 218 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.8 29.0 28.8 28.3 26.6 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 147 150 148 141 120 118 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 124 128 126 120 102 99 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.2 -50.8 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.0 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.6 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 39 38 37 39 42 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 31 30 30 30 20 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 120 124 79 99 88 89 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 156 113 75 72 88 30 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 10 21 46 48 57 23 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -3 45 96 131 114 -78 -284 -435 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 29.1 29.6 30.5 31.3 33.5 35.3 36.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.7 80.4 80.1 80.1 80.0 80.4 81.3 82.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 9 9 10 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 61 63 51 29 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 8 CX,CY: 5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -15. -21. -25. -28. -32. -34. -36. -40. -42. -44. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -8. -11. -11. -10. -6. -4. -4. -4. -1. 0. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -11. -21. -23. -25. -26. -27. -27. -27. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -9. -11. -11. -10. -21. -34. -37. -38. -41. -42. -46. -51. -58. -63. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.5 80.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.12 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 51.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.34 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 325.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 16.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/29/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 57 56 55 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 56 55 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 43 31 27 26 26 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 38 26 22 21 21 21 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT