* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 44 38 37 37 44 41 25 18 20 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 48 48 47 47 53 38 30 28 28 28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 48 43 37 33 30 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 27 31 39 40 40 41 39 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 2 5 4 0 -4 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 247 235 229 235 229 224 209 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.1 27.8 27.1 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 147 150 154 153 134 125 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 125 128 131 130 113 106 102 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.8 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 39 37 43 42 40 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 27 29 28 29 26 15 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 128 119 116 78 109 74 95 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 104 147 107 96 97 51 68 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 9 5 2 36 46 52 18 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -63 -10 30 81 129 59 -121 -315 -460 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.5 30.2 32.0 33.8 35.8 37.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.8 80.4 80.2 80.0 80.0 80.7 81.2 81.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 52 62 64 62 16 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -16. -20. -26. -30. -33. -36. -38. -41. -44. -46. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -15. -20. -21. -18. -10. -7. -8. -8. -3. 0. 4. 3. -1. -8. -13. -12. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -1. -0. -4. -19. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -16. -22. -23. -23. -16. -19. -35. -42. -40. -42. -41. -45. -53. -62. -70. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 27.7 81.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -75.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.00 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.98 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 301.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 53.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/29/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 48 48 47 47 53 38 30 28 28 28 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 58 64 49 41 39 39 39 39 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 61 46 38 36 36 36 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 56 41 33 31 31 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT