* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 89 81 76 72 62 57 47 34 33 34 35 34 33 31 29 24 V (KT) LAND 100 69 53 51 47 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 68 51 44 47 46 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 40 35 33 35 40 46 32 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 2 4 10 -2 -3 0 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 224 240 247 236 222 237 222 218 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.9 28.5 27.0 26.8 26.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 148 143 143 149 144 124 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 127 121 121 126 123 106 103 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.8 -51.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.0 1.1 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 39 39 40 39 38 41 44 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 27 27 28 27 29 24 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 121 121 108 109 88 87 79 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 92 94 128 104 59 104 40 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 12 7 2 0 37 57 30 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -72 -80 -32 7 52 107 -55 -249 -432 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.9 28.4 28.9 29.4 31.0 33.1 35.1 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.7 81.4 81.0 80.8 80.5 80.3 80.5 81.0 81.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 5 7 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 31 54 55 58 33 6 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -12. -21. -29. -34. -38. -41. -44. -47. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -6. -13. -18. -23. -31. -35. -34. -33. -31. -28. -27. -25. -22. -21. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 3. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -9. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. -24. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -24. -28. -37. -43. -53. -66. -67. -66. -65. -66. -67. -69. -71. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 27.3 81.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 477.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.60 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.3% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/29/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 69 53 51 47 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 100 99 83 81 77 67 60 58 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 12HR AGO 100 97 96 94 90 80 73 71 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 86 76 69 67 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 71 64 62 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT