* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 130 117 103 91 71 59 53 38 24 16 17 21 27 31 30 23 V (KT) LAND 135 102 73 54 44 32 19 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 135 106 76 54 44 46 46 33 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 35 41 39 36 41 37 44 35 37 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 1 0 1 7 -3 -5 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 209 224 241 249 242 227 229 225 210 224 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.8 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 164 153 145 142 147 131 127 122 118 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 151 141 131 123 120 125 113 107 100 94 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -50.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.0 1.5 2.6 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 40 40 40 39 40 40 43 40 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 27 28 27 27 28 27 28 21 15 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 112 124 120 101 71 100 60 86 93 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 95 75 80 89 72 81 76 76 75 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 0 7 3 3 16 20 59 21 6 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 30 -36 -70 -67 -24 60 34 -145 -301 -348 -337 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.8 31.7 33.8 35.2 35.8 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.4 82.0 81.7 81.3 81.0 80.6 80.7 81.2 81.7 81.7 81.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 8 10 9 5 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 92 41 11 45 55 51 16 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 8 CX,CY: 2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -28. -44. -59. -73. -84. -88. -92. -96. -97. -98. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -7. -19. -29. -37. -48. -49. -45. -39. -32. -23. -18. -13. -6. -2. -3. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -7. -17. -26. -32. -32. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -18. -32. -44. -64. -76. -82. -97.-111.-119.-118.-114.-107.-104.-105.-112. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 26.6 82.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 48.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.32 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 616.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -1.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 43.0% 32.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/28/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 0( 48) 0( 48) 0( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 102 73 54 44 32 19 23 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 135 134 105 86 76 64 51 55 57 58 59 59 59 59 59 59 59 12HR AGO 135 132 131 112 102 90 77 81 83 84 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 115 103 90 94 96 97 98 98 98 98 98 98 98 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 104 91 95 97 98 99 99 99 99 99 99 99 IN 6HR 135 102 93 87 84 74 61 65 67 68 69 69 69 69 69 69 69 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT