* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 136 127 114 101 81 68 62 52 36 24 24 29 36 40 38 32 V (KT) LAND 135 136 102 75 54 43 29 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 135 137 107 77 55 39 44 37 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 25 32 39 36 38 35 44 34 31 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 1 1 7 5 -2 -5 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 210 208 220 240 251 226 239 223 221 210 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.3 28.8 28.5 28.3 27.4 27.4 27.0 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 166 155 147 142 141 129 128 122 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 149 142 132 124 120 120 110 106 100 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 0.7 1.0 2.5 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 46 41 40 39 40 40 41 45 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 28 27 26 28 27 28 26 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 109 114 115 127 126 112 82 82 75 78 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 112 108 100 93 71 87 44 111 38 41 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 3 1 8 4 -1 22 36 30 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 91 32 -37 -73 -74 3 72 -23 -212 -344 -433 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.1 29.1 30.5 32.6 34.3 35.5 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.7 82.4 82.0 81.7 81.4 80.9 80.7 81.1 81.7 82.0 82.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 6 6 6 9 10 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 78 92 43 12 37 54 35 10 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -2. -5. -13. -25. -41. -55. -69. -79. -83. -87. -91. -93. -94. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -14. -23. -31. -42. -44. -40. -36. -28. -19. -15. -10. -4. 0. -1. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 1. -0. 1. 2. -0. -1. -5. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -3. -6. -5. -10. -21. -29. -29. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -8. -21. -34. -54. -67. -73. -83. -99.-111.-111.-106. -99. -95. -97.-103. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 26.0 82.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 52.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.03 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 623.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.29 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 24.1% 5.9% 6.4% 4.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 19.9% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/28/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 48 0( 48) 0( 48) 0( 48) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 135 136 102 75 54 43 29 24 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 135 134 100 73 52 41 27 22 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 135 132 131 104 83 72 58 53 55 55 56 56 56 56 56 56 56 6HR AGO 135 129 126 125 104 93 79 74 76 76 77 77 77 77 77 77 77 NOW 135 126 120 117 116 105 91 86 88 88 89 89 89 89 89 89 89 IN 6HR 135 136 127 121 118 116 102 97 99 99 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 IN 12HR 135 136 102 93 87 83 69 64 66 66 67 67 67 67 67 67 67