* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 104 104 100 92 79 68 67 63 50 39 39 41 43 44 43 38 V (KT) LAND 105 104 104 74 56 37 31 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 104 102 75 56 37 37 36 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 20 25 33 38 35 40 34 41 33 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 2 3 3 0 -6 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 214 208 220 238 239 234 225 234 216 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.0 29.4 28.6 29.4 28.1 27.6 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 168 156 144 157 138 131 124 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 156 153 143 133 122 133 118 111 102 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.2 -51.2 -51.0 -51.0 -50.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.7 2.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 1 2 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 51 47 43 41 39 38 40 41 45 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 34 31 30 29 28 30 29 21 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 107 111 118 129 111 64 106 62 85 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 109 117 112 100 87 107 69 85 48 40 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 9 6 4 9 2 16 20 54 25 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 149 78 10 -48 -70 -42 56 13 -160 -349 -483 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.7 29.9 31.5 33.9 35.5 36.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.9 82.5 82.2 81.9 81.7 81.2 80.7 81.1 81.4 82.1 83.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 5 5 6 7 10 10 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 53 80 70 35 11 55 54 23 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. -1. -7. -15. -23. -30. -36. -39. -42. -45. -47. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -13. -19. -27. -30. -29. -29. -25. -21. -20. -17. -14. -12. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. -0. -2. -3. -5. -4. -7. -18. -28. -29. -29. -28. -28. -27. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -5. -13. -26. -37. -38. -42. -55. -66. -66. -64. -62. -61. -62. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 25.2 82.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 421.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 105.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 10.1% 7.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 4.2% 3.5% 2.6% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.0% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 4.8% 3.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/28/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 0( 46) 0( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 104 104 74 56 37 31 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 104 74 56 37 31 30 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 105 102 101 71 53 34 28 27 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 77 58 52 51 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 48 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 67 61 60 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 57 IN 6HR 105 104 95 89 86 78 72 71 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 68 IN 12HR 105 104 104 95 89 85 79 78 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75 75