* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/28/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 105 104 103 97 85 79 69 70 65 51 51 52 53 53 52 47 V (KT) LAND 105 105 104 103 82 48 35 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 106 106 103 84 49 34 35 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 23 21 25 32 33 33 35 40 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 0 3 1 8 -2 -3 -5 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 200 212 203 201 218 247 224 248 225 221 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.2 28.9 28.5 29.1 27.8 27.7 27.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 170 170 169 148 142 152 134 132 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 155 151 147 125 119 129 114 110 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 55 51 47 43 39 40 41 43 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 30 33 31 29 31 27 29 27 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 99 99 106 118 132 126 98 99 110 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 116 119 107 88 86 101 56 89 43 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 13 9 5 0 7 -6 22 45 38 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 163 140 81 35 -21 -82 -33 30 -9 -143 -325 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.4 25.2 26.0 26.6 27.1 28.1 28.9 30.0 32.0 33.7 35.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.0 82.8 82.6 82.4 82.2 81.6 81.2 81.0 81.1 81.5 82.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 7 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 57 54 80 89 56 23 55 49 15 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 4. 1. -7. -14. -21. -28. -34. -36. -39. -42. -44. -45. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -24. -26. -25. -25. -22. -19. -17. -15. -12. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -0. -2. -1. -7. -5. -9. -22. -22. -23. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -8. -20. -26. -36. -35. -40. -54. -54. -53. -52. -52. -53. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 24.4 83.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 388.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.17 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 13.7% 9.1% 7.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.4% 4.9% 3.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.3% 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 6.2% 4.5% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/28/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/28/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 26( 46) 0( 46) 0( 46) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 105 104 103 82 48 35 33 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 103 102 81 47 34 32 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 79 45 32 30 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 74 40 27 25 22 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 52 39 37 34 32 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 IN 6HR 105 105 96 90 87 71 58 56 53 51 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 IN 12HR 105 105 104 95 89 85 72 70 67 65 64 64 64 64 64 64 64