* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 106 105 102 90 82 74 71 71 63 52 45 47 47 46 42 V (KT) LAND 105 106 106 105 102 70 43 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 105 107 107 107 105 72 44 32 29 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 19 24 23 24 37 32 37 31 33 29 25 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 1 6 3 6 -2 -4 -2 -7 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 202 205 198 195 231 230 237 236 241 227 241 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.4 29.9 29.1 28.5 28.6 27.8 27.7 27.1 27.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 171 170 170 170 165 151 142 144 134 132 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 153 155 153 153 139 126 120 122 114 109 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 2.6 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 3 1 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 59 55 51 47 39 39 40 45 46 54 55 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 30 31 32 31 30 29 28 30 26 18 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 91 92 95 110 129 123 84 115 85 113 100 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 118 105 106 110 82 116 88 83 59 44 15 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 10 6 4 2 0 6 4 43 25 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 162 165 113 49 -36 -63 -51 -11 -49 -171 -278 -258 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.4 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.5 28.1 28.9 30.2 32.0 33.9 35.0 35.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.2 83.1 82.9 82.7 82.2 81.8 81.4 81.5 81.6 81.7 81.6 81.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 6 8 9 7 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 58 51 60 97 52 10 49 36 8 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -5. -13. -20. -26. -32. -36. -41. -45. -47. -48. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -13. -20. -23. -23. -22. -20. -16. -14. -11. -8. -6. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -11. -22. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -3. -15. -23. -31. -34. -34. -42. -53. -60. -58. -58. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 23.5 83.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.35 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.43 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.42 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 331.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.59 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.16 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 110.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.65 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 15.6% 10.1% 8.7% 6.6% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 3.2% 1.9% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.9% 1.2% 2.6% 2.5% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.8% 6.6% 4.9% 4.0% 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 7.0% 5.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/27/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 27 27( 47) 24( 59) 0( 59) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 44 12( 51) 1( 51) 0( 51) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 106 106 105 102 70 43 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 105 104 104 103 100 68 41 30 27 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 105 102 101 100 97 65 38 27 24 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 92 60 33 22 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 54 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 105 106 97 91 88 71 44 33 30 29 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 IN 12HR 105 106 106 97 91 87 60 49 46 45 44 44 44 44 44 44 44