* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/27/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 116 117 114 111 103 89 83 75 73 69 66 59 55 50 48 43 V (KT) LAND 110 125 126 123 120 112 72 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 110 121 122 121 118 107 70 43 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 19 22 23 31 35 42 35 39 38 36 30 39 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 4 1 2 5 7 1 -2 -7 -3 -9 -3 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 192 189 199 197 216 241 227 244 233 234 220 233 235 259 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.7 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.3 29.6 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.1 26.9 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 164 171 171 170 169 159 144 140 137 135 133 124 122 123 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 148 153 153 150 148 134 120 118 116 113 110 102 101 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -53.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.5 2.2 2.3 1.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 3 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 57 52 48 40 36 36 40 41 46 44 54 60 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 29 28 30 31 26 28 27 29 29 29 23 20 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 66 89 89 97 117 126 106 82 82 92 101 116 98 84 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 94 110 108 101 105 76 52 95 49 71 49 81 67 67 75 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 4 9 3 1 -1 -7 0 8 14 20 7 9 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -16 77 174 187 131 36 -10 -69 -78 -45 -113 -209 -320 -308 -225 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.5 24.4 25.2 26.0 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.3 30.7 32.5 34.1 35.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.6 83.6 83.5 83.3 83.2 82.8 82.3 82.0 81.9 82.0 82.2 82.1 81.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 8 8 8 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 82 64 60 50 53 86 47 5 13 11 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 1. -6. -15. -22. -29. -35. -39. -44. -50. -54. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -11. -17. -21. -22. -22. -20. -18. -16. -13. -10. -9. -10. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. -3. -2. -4. -3. -3. -5. -13. -18. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 7. 4. 1. -7. -21. -27. -35. -37. -41. -44. -51. -55. -60. -62. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 22.6 83.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 9.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.46 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 61.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.41 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 362.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.56 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.12 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.5% 28.7% 22.9% 12.3% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.3% 17.7% 13.1% 6.0% 1.2% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 46.9% 3.7% 9.8% 13.0% 4.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 30.9% 16.7% 15.3% 10.4% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 33.0% 23.0% 20.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/27/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 40( 40) 33( 60) 30( 72) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 44( 44) 3( 46) 0( 46) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 125 126 123 120 112 72 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 18HR AGO 110 109 110 107 104 96 56 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 103 100 92 52 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 97 89 49 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 83 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 125 116 110 107 101 61 33 22 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 17 IN 12HR 110 125 126 117 111 107 67 39 28 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 23