* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/27/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 107 112 115 114 111 103 95 87 80 74 67 56 47 43 38 30 V (KT) LAND 100 86 101 104 103 100 92 65 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 100 90 105 111 112 104 91 64 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 13 18 21 24 36 37 40 32 41 29 31 39 36 35 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 0 3 2 4 5 6 1 -6 -3 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 205 209 201 197 207 203 223 236 243 228 241 227 242 223 246 245 248 SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.1 30.4 30.0 29.8 29.7 28.9 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 25.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 171 171 169 164 161 147 138 134 135 136 126 125 125 111 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 162 155 159 149 141 136 123 116 115 115 114 104 102 101 91 80 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -51.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -52.0 -52.2 -53.5 -53.9 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 61 56 53 44 35 33 36 42 44 51 64 67 65 57 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 33 34 34 32 30 30 29 29 26 20 14 12 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 69 91 97 108 121 111 79 93 56 79 55 73 66 63 34 200 MB DIV 106 97 107 105 101 89 87 83 78 67 33 76 56 100 67 32 -9 700-850 TADV 4 6 5 5 8 3 7 1 9 5 29 27 26 0 -7 -24 -30 LAND (KM) 44 -2 94 184 212 105 23 -18 -41 -74 -105 -199 -301 -276 -206 -137 -150 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.7 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.7 27.5 28.2 29.0 30.3 32.2 34.1 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.6 83.7 83.8 83.7 83.7 83.4 82.9 82.6 82.3 82.2 82.2 81.9 81.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 4 6 8 10 9 8 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 100 80 68 65 48 50 81 46 8 4 2 3 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 11 CX,CY: -2/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -8. -14. -20. -24. -27. -32. -36. -40. -44. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -16. -15. -14. -12. -10. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 2. -1. -2. -7. -16. -23. -25. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 15. 14. 11. 3. -5. -13. -20. -26. -33. -44. -53. -57. -62. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 21.8 83.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 9.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 323.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.60 2.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.26 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 33.2% 25.8% 14.7% 8.1% 10.2% 8.6% 0.0% Logistic: 16.6% 21.7% 13.4% 6.1% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 49.5% 6.8% 10.8% 17.4% 5.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 31.3% 20.6% 16.7% 12.7% 5.1% 4.5% 2.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 13.0% 17.0% 16.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/27/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 23( 40) 25( 55) 22( 65) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 17 3( 19) 1( 20) 0( 20) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 86 101 104 103 100 92 65 44 33 29 27 27 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 100 99 114 117 116 113 105 78 57 46 42 40 40 40 40 41 41 12HR AGO 100 97 96 99 98 95 87 60 39 28 24 22 22 22 22 23 23 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 89 86 78 51 30 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 78 70 43 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 100 86 77 71 68 66 58 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 100 86 101 92 86 82 74 47 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS