* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/27/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 94 102 110 118 124 117 109 98 83 74 61 49 39 30 24 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 94 94 101 109 115 108 100 61 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 94 84 103 111 115 102 87 56 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 7 10 12 18 22 32 31 34 33 38 28 35 35 49 39 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 1 2 3 6 8 0 -2 -5 -5 -5 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 155 208 219 205 195 206 210 240 226 248 237 244 235 232 238 244 258 SST (C) 30.4 30.7 30.3 30.1 30.3 29.9 29.7 29.3 28.5 27.9 27.8 28.0 27.7 27.1 27.4 25.2 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 171 171 171 167 161 154 141 134 133 136 132 125 128 106 103 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 171 161 155 157 145 136 129 118 113 113 115 110 103 106 89 87 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.3 -51.9 -53.3 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.2 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 60 56 47 39 35 38 44 48 52 59 66 63 54 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 30 31 35 38 33 33 32 29 29 25 21 16 13 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 71 58 61 71 99 98 125 135 110 88 90 92 73 94 73 53 -1 200 MB DIV 146 124 109 108 100 108 87 74 111 71 52 27 52 72 84 77 49 700-850 TADV 4 7 9 5 6 7 -1 3 4 13 9 14 12 0 -35 -20 -3 LAND (KM) 145 44 8 103 202 141 49 6 -29 -84 -55 -98 -236 -264 -153 -109 -151 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.7 24.6 26.2 27.3 27.9 28.6 29.6 31.0 32.7 34.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.5 83.7 83.7 83.8 83.5 83.1 82.9 82.4 82.1 82.1 81.9 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 9 9 7 4 4 4 6 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 102 99 77 67 63 45 77 67 17 5 5 3 2 1 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 6. 6. 4. -1. -1. -7. -14. -20. -24. -25. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 14. 20. 19. 13. 7. 1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 25. 33. 39. 32. 24. 13. -2. -11. -24. -36. -46. -55. -61. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.8 83.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 6.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.69 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 247.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 4.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.42 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.68 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 38.4% 57.5% 45.5% 30.9% 24.3% 21.0% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 37.1% 62.2% 46.3% 33.4% 17.2% 8.4% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 38.1% 44.9% 25.0% 36.3% 21.8% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% Consensus: 37.9% 54.9% 38.9% 33.5% 21.1% 10.6% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 16.0% 76.0% 60.0% 47.0% 19.0% 37.0% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/27/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/27/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 16( 24) 28( 46) 31( 62) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 30 7( 35) 1( 36) 1( 36) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 94 94 101 109 115 108 100 61 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 85 84 84 91 99 105 98 90 51 30 21 18 17 17 17 17 DIS 12HR AGO 85 82 81 88 96 102 95 87 48 27 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 83 89 82 74 35 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 72 65 57 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 94 85 79 76 77 70 62 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 94 94 85 79 75 68 60 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS