* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/26/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 90 100 110 118 128 128 115 100 86 73 60 49 39 28 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 90 100 104 111 121 122 109 94 67 43 32 28 27 27 27 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 89 100 103 112 123 114 96 81 58 39 30 28 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 1 2 7 13 16 20 28 39 34 36 29 42 40 40 43 47 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 -2 -1 4 3 4 4 4 2 -4 -4 -6 -7 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 67 128 196 212 200 200 202 233 240 249 239 254 234 239 234 245 242 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.4 28.2 27.9 28.1 27.4 27.1 27.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 171 171 171 167 162 158 149 140 138 135 138 128 124 125 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 169 168 159 155 147 140 132 125 117 116 114 115 106 103 103 84 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.6 -50.3 -51.2 -51.9 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.8 2.1 1.9 2.1 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 7 6 6 2 2 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 69 66 62 52 46 35 32 35 41 44 52 61 68 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 27 30 32 35 37 34 30 29 27 25 21 18 13 12 11 850 MB ENV VOR 62 73 63 63 81 104 116 139 125 94 102 58 81 59 86 66 60 200 MB DIV 107 151 104 77 97 95 101 60 75 72 71 31 37 23 110 76 54 700-850 TADV 1 5 9 11 7 10 2 2 0 14 8 25 18 19 8 11 -6 LAND (KM) 265 140 28 13 112 226 117 57 36 -15 -97 -140 -194 -264 -224 -189 -157 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.8 21.8 22.8 23.7 25.4 26.8 27.7 28.5 29.3 30.5 31.9 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.0 83.5 83.9 84.0 84.0 83.9 83.6 83.4 83.1 82.9 82.9 82.7 82.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 9 8 6 4 4 5 7 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 85 109 104 83 71 45 44 61 51 25 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 75.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -13. -14. -15. -17. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 9. 4. 2. -2. -5. -11. -15. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 25. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -20. -20. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 20. 30. 38. 48. 48. 35. 20. 6. -7. -20. -31. -41. -52. -60. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.7 83.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 18.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 8.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.60 5.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.90 10.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 6.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 2.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 6.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 16.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 50.4% 72.4% 63.8% 50.8% 40.5% 40.3% 21.1% 0.0% Logistic: 43.3% 69.9% 56.5% 46.9% 27.5% 16.8% 2.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 42.6% 68.1% 46.5% 54.7% 26.0% 10.2% 1.6% 0.0% Consensus: 45.4% 70.1% 55.6% 50.8% 31.3% 22.4% 8.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 84.0% 97.0% 93.0% 89.0% 57.0% 89.0% 89.0% 3.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/26/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 22( 27) 29( 48) 34( 66) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 46( 56) 10( 60) 7( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 90 100 104 111 121 122 109 94 67 43 32 28 27 27 27 DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 89 93 100 110 111 98 83 56 32 21 17 16 16 16 DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 80 87 97 98 85 70 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 77 87 88 75 60 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 90 81 75 72 74 75 62 47 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 80 90 100 91 85 81 82 69 54 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS