* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/26/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 80 91 101 109 122 124 119 106 94 77 66 54 46 38 29 17 V (KT) LAND 70 80 91 101 104 117 119 113 101 88 56 37 30 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 70 80 92 103 97 123 118 104 89 75 50 35 29 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 3 8 12 17 24 34 35 37 32 44 42 54 53 61 55 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 2 5 3 7 8 3 -4 -8 -10 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 297 358 165 196 192 187 208 212 237 240 248 247 261 255 256 259 265 SST (C) 29.9 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.2 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.0 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.5 27.1 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 172 172 171 171 171 161 160 158 149 139 137 136 137 129 126 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 170 169 168 161 155 140 136 132 124 117 117 114 112 107 105 103 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.1 -50.5 -50.3 -50.6 -50.0 -50.2 -50.7 -51.4 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.8 2.0 2.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 6 5 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 68 66 56 47 39 34 37 42 43 40 37 42 47 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 25 26 28 34 34 35 33 32 28 27 24 23 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 39 62 73 63 65 94 102 128 128 107 83 70 54 47 51 49 46 200 MB DIV 62 94 117 105 58 113 97 86 67 78 68 86 49 47 41 59 33 700-850 TADV 7 5 5 8 7 4 7 1 0 1 6 4 11 16 18 6 -7 LAND (KM) 375 262 133 33 15 202 198 95 67 51 -47 -131 -213 -281 -358 -360 -282 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.7 20.7 21.7 22.7 24.5 26.1 27.3 28.1 28.8 29.7 31.1 33.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.4 83.0 83.7 83.9 84.1 84.2 84.1 83.6 83.5 83.3 82.9 82.9 83.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 8 7 5 4 4 6 9 8 7 8 11 12 HEAT CONTENT 61 85 115 107 88 67 37 46 56 45 19 3 2 3 2 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 75.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -23. -28. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 5. 10. 12. 14. 11. 10. 4. 3. -3. -5. -9. -11. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 25. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -20. -20. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 31. 39. 52. 54. 49. 36. 24. 7. -4. -16. -24. -32. -41. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.7 82.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 24.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.89 12.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 91.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.60 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 12.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 9.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 150.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 8.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 12.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 8.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 85% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 18.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 23.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 79% is 17.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 60.6% 90.3% 85.2% 72.7% 57.4% 79.1% 43.5% 14.5% Logistic: 57.5% 81.6% 73.8% 63.8% 40.0% 42.2% 10.9% 0.0% Bayesian: 47.9% 76.2% 63.3% 58.9% 36.9% 16.6% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 55.3% 82.7% 74.1% 65.1% 44.8% 46.0% 18.8% 4.8% DTOPS: 55.0% 92.0% 81.0% 74.0% 20.0% 85.0% 91.0% 7.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/26/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 12( 16) 26( 37) 32( 57) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 20( 22) 3( 25) 1( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 80 91 101 104 117 119 113 101 88 56 37 30 28 27 27 28 18HR AGO 70 69 80 90 93 106 108 102 90 77 45 26 19 17 16 16 17 12HR AGO 70 67 66 76 79 92 94 88 76 63 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 76 78 72 60 47 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 70 80 91 82 76 72 74 68 56 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS