* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/26/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 76 88 98 107 124 128 129 118 105 89 74 58 47 40 32 24 V (KT) LAND 65 76 88 98 107 114 119 120 108 95 71 44 32 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 77 90 103 115 125 125 114 98 80 64 39 30 28 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 4 1 4 13 24 28 37 32 37 37 45 49 55 54 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -3 -1 -2 0 5 4 7 7 8 3 -1 -6 -4 0 2 SHEAR DIR 293 290 310 348 185 187 203 196 216 223 248 244 257 249 263 266 266 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.4 30.3 30.4 30.0 29.7 29.7 29.4 28.9 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 172 171 171 169 163 163 156 147 141 140 139 137 137 130 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 169 171 165 166 154 143 141 131 121 118 121 118 110 111 109 107 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.3 -51.1 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -51.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 7 7 5 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 69 62 53 48 41 40 45 52 46 42 36 40 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 21 25 25 27 34 36 39 37 35 32 28 24 20 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 50 40 57 71 62 82 98 118 128 119 83 87 52 73 71 77 21 200 MB DIV 101 58 77 116 82 100 98 115 94 100 82 94 69 41 33 46 -11 700-850 TADV 8 8 6 2 5 6 12 0 7 1 20 11 10 3 16 0 -11 LAND (KM) 340 367 230 121 19 141 236 116 82 48 -3 -121 -187 -304 -347 -423 -396 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.9 20.0 20.9 21.8 23.9 25.6 27.0 28.4 29.0 29.3 30.8 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.7 82.4 83.1 83.6 84.0 84.2 84.2 83.7 83.6 83.5 83.1 82.8 82.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 11 10 10 10 8 7 5 3 5 11 10 5 5 12 15 HEAT CONTENT 57 66 85 106 105 74 43 43 54 49 30 3 3 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 75.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. -17. -22. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 13. 17. 23. 21. 18. 14. 8. 1. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 25. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -20. -20. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 11. 23. 33. 42. 59. 63. 64. 53. 40. 24. 9. -7. -18. -25. -33. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 17.7 81.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 27.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.97 13.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 7.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 10.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.95 10.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 145.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 9.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 4.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.64 3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 2.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 95% is 8.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 90% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 19.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 59% is 24.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 92% is 19.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 62% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 52.0% 94.5% 89.9% 75.2% 58.5% 91.7% 62.1% 24.7% Logistic: 46.6% 79.5% 66.4% 42.6% 20.0% 41.0% 26.9% 0.2% Bayesian: 54.3% 79.1% 56.2% 48.9% 39.2% 25.7% 2.1% 0.0% Consensus: 51.0% 84.4% 70.8% 55.6% 39.2% 52.8% 30.3% 8.3% DTOPS: 86.0% 99.0% 98.0% 99.0% 78.0% 87.0% 97.0% 35.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/26/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 11( 13) 27( 36) 30( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 22( 31) 36( 56) 46( 76) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 76 88 98 107 114 119 120 108 95 71 44 32 28 27 27 28 18HR AGO 65 64 76 86 95 102 107 108 96 83 59 32 20 16 15 15 16 12HR AGO 65 62 61 71 80 87 92 93 81 68 44 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 64 71 76 77 65 52 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 65 76 88 79 73 69 74 75 63 50 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS