* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 66 77 88 104 117 116 112 99 87 75 65 54 45 36 30 V (KT) LAND 50 57 66 77 88 99 112 111 107 94 82 51 34 29 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 50 55 61 70 81 89 115 111 97 82 67 43 32 28 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 0 2 4 3 7 17 24 37 36 41 36 44 35 39 42 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 5 0 -1 -1 0 2 2 3 3 3 4 0 -3 -4 -3 5 SHEAR DIR 40 96 293 310 170 173 195 211 216 248 240 252 242 244 235 237 239 SST (C) 30.0 30.2 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.0 29.5 29.4 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 28.2 28.3 27.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 170 172 172 172 171 171 169 159 156 158 149 143 136 138 140 133 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 167 170 167 168 166 160 152 138 133 134 126 120 113 113 116 112 106 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -51.6 -51.7 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.6 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 72 73 73 72 66 57 48 39 34 34 41 45 46 43 40 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 20 23 26 29 35 34 36 33 31 28 27 23 20 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 63 50 43 66 80 64 92 114 120 133 113 82 82 65 50 51 54 200 MB DIV 107 106 53 66 112 69 91 97 78 61 79 72 44 31 28 48 52 700-850 TADV 6 9 7 7 5 7 5 4 3 4 -2 9 9 15 13 8 29 LAND (KM) 311 347 369 267 147 3 208 241 188 156 58 -88 -181 -202 -286 -468 -603 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.6 22.5 24.4 26.1 27.2 28.2 29.4 30.7 32.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.9 81.7 82.5 83.1 83.6 84.2 84.6 84.6 84.6 84.4 84.0 83.5 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 11 10 10 9 7 5 6 7 7 7 6 8 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 50 58 66 83 105 94 86 40 32 32 44 3 2 3 3 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 75.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 19. 21. 21. 21. 20. 19. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 3. -1. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -25. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 6. 10. 19. 20. 22. 18. 15. 10. 8. 2. -3. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 25. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -20. -20. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 27. 38. 54. 67. 66. 62. 49. 37. 25. 15. 4. -5. -14. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 16.9 80.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 13.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.4 30.1 to 2.3 1.00 9.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 72.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.48 4.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 7.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 5.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 6.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.55 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 69% is 6.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 74% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 67% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 68.7% 56.0% 38.4% 30.7% 74.3% 66.8% 32.1% Logistic: 19.1% 72.0% 58.6% 54.2% 36.0% 47.8% 31.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 4.3% 51.3% 30.4% 15.2% 11.2% 32.5% 22.6% 0.2% Consensus: 13.9% 64.0% 48.3% 35.9% 26.0% 51.5% 40.3% 10.9% DTOPS: 12.0% 98.0% 94.0% 91.0% 34.0% 89.0% 97.0% 64.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/26/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/26/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 11( 14) 21( 32) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 4( 4) 10( 14) 12( 24) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 66 77 88 99 112 111 107 94 82 51 34 29 27 27 28 18HR AGO 50 49 58 69 80 91 104 103 99 86 74 43 26 21 19 19 20 12HR AGO 50 47 46 57 68 79 92 91 87 74 62 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 51 62 75 74 70 57 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT