* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 52 62 74 94 110 111 116 103 92 81 71 57 44 33 24 V (KT) LAND 40 44 52 62 74 94 104 106 110 98 87 76 44 32 29 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 44 49 57 81 100 112 109 95 79 63 39 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 3 2 5 3 10 20 24 34 34 40 41 39 42 47 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 1 0 -1 -1 -2 3 4 4 7 3 -1 -3 -7 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 3 58 37 26 38 94 185 214 200 228 234 251 249 258 242 246 248 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.5 29.5 28.5 28.4 28.0 28.3 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 172 172 172 171 170 169 161 159 159 142 141 136 141 133 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 170 162 168 167 167 165 155 150 140 136 135 119 119 115 118 109 103 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.3 -50.7 -50.6 -50.8 -50.3 -50.6 -50.9 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.9 2.2 2.3 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 7 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 73 74 74 75 73 73 67 60 56 47 46 49 49 46 50 47 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 19 21 24 28 34 34 40 35 33 31 29 24 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 63 66 62 44 60 72 77 106 124 128 127 85 98 74 92 50 53 200 MB DIV 75 117 109 65 60 96 90 77 107 76 110 98 72 32 39 43 77 700-850 TADV 0 6 8 5 3 2 7 14 5 19 7 23 18 32 17 14 10 LAND (KM) 331 309 302 335 344 108 36 234 221 138 121 16 -113 -154 -263 -410 -495 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.1 19.0 20.9 22.8 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.5 29.6 30.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.0 80.7 81.4 82.1 82.8 83.8 84.3 84.5 84.3 84.1 84.0 83.6 83.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 10 10 8 7 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 55 46 50 60 72 112 93 74 39 35 42 34 3 3 3 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 74.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 31. 30. 30. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 4. -0. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 10. 19. 19. 28. 22. 20. 16. 12. 4. -4. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 3. 7. 12. 18. 26. 24. 17. 9. 2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -18. -20. -19. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 12. 22. 34. 54. 70. 71. 76. 63. 52. 41. 31. 17. 4. -7. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.7 80.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 5.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.93 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.37 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.84 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 85.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.53 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 29% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 36.7% 25.7% 11.1% 8.2% 29.4% 41.7% 46.0% Logistic: 5.4% 28.5% 14.4% 8.0% 3.6% 11.8% 28.4% 10.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 9.0% 3.8% 0.9% 1.0% 5.7% 4.1% 0.6% Consensus: 4.3% 24.7% 14.6% 6.6% 4.3% 15.6% 24.7% 19.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 97.0% 86.0% 68.0% 20.0% 90.0% 98.0% 92.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/25/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 16( 20) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 5( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 44 52 62 74 94 104 106 110 98 87 76 44 32 29 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 47 57 69 89 99 101 105 93 82 71 39 27 24 22 22 12HR AGO 40 37 36 46 58 78 88 90 94 82 71 60 28 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 42 62 72 74 78 66 55 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT