* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/25/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 56 66 76 93 107 113 119 112 102 94 79 64 51 40 30 V (KT) LAND 45 49 56 66 76 93 107 113 119 112 102 94 64 39 31 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 51 56 64 85 109 122 121 104 84 69 47 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 6 2 3 1 4 6 17 22 35 31 40 38 45 44 57 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 4 2 2 -1 -2 2 0 6 4 9 3 0 -1 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 324 350 79 113 122 151 145 195 215 204 237 239 261 257 257 266 270 SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 168 170 172 172 171 167 165 159 157 155 143 143 139 141 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 170 165 166 166 165 160 151 145 136 134 131 120 120 117 117 107 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 -50.3 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.3 0.8 0.9 1.8 2.2 2.2 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 72 74 73 69 60 54 48 46 51 53 45 35 34 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 17 20 22 26 32 34 39 38 35 35 31 26 21 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 55 62 68 58 50 81 66 91 114 119 127 115 91 90 97 43 49 200 MB DIV 43 76 105 102 69 106 64 101 91 91 76 103 95 79 8 19 6 700-850 TADV -1 1 6 9 9 3 0 7 8 17 12 11 26 10 1 5 9 LAND (KM) 360 325 273 286 301 213 6 177 318 243 182 89 -35 -201 -324 -421 -549 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.7 16.4 17.3 18.1 19.9 21.9 23.9 25.5 26.8 28.0 29.1 30.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.4 80.3 81.1 81.9 82.7 83.9 84.7 85.0 85.1 85.0 84.7 84.3 84.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 61 49 43 51 63 106 104 124 86 40 29 39 7 3 3 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 67.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27. 28. 27. 27. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 5. 1. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 16. 20. 28. 26. 23. 22. 15. 7. 0. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 22. 15. 8. 1. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -17. -17. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 11. 21. 31. 48. 62. 68. 74. 67. 57. 49. 34. 19. 6. -5. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.0 79.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 53.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.35 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 3.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.80 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 3.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 40.1% 27.0% 14.1% 8.4% 35.4% 51.4% 55.1% Logistic: 4.6% 26.6% 12.8% 6.6% 3.1% 12.5% 22.5% 10.0% Bayesian: 1.4% 22.7% 7.5% 1.2% 1.2% 18.0% 8.3% 1.3% Consensus: 4.3% 29.8% 15.8% 7.3% 4.2% 22.0% 27.4% 22.1% DTOPS: 8.0% 88.0% 65.0% 52.0% 12.0% 81.0% 96.0% 93.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/25/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 5( 5) 14( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 3( 4) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 56 66 76 93 107 113 119 112 102 94 64 39 31 28 27 18HR AGO 45 44 51 61 71 88 102 108 114 107 97 89 59 34 26 23 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 51 61 78 92 98 104 97 87 79 49 24 16 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 45 62 76 82 88 81 71 63 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT