* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IAN AL092022 09/25/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 60 68 83 95 106 112 113 107 100 85 65 48 36 28 V (KT) LAND 45 49 54 60 68 83 95 104 110 112 105 99 83 45 33 29 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 48 52 56 62 79 101 115 117 112 97 75 55 35 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 14 9 6 4 3 7 8 20 27 41 38 41 40 42 48 58 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 2 3 1 0 0 3 4 4 6 4 0 0 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 306 319 324 339 337 300 202 162 209 203 211 227 253 253 265 265 262 SST (C) 30.7 30.3 29.9 29.7 30.0 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.9 29.5 29.6 29.5 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.3 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 168 165 170 172 171 169 167 159 161 159 147 146 142 140 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 172 171 165 161 166 168 165 155 150 139 138 134 123 123 119 116 112 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.8 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.8 1.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 7 6 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 75 76 76 75 72 64 59 51 56 56 57 48 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 21 26 31 36 40 41 41 41 36 27 19 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 56 60 70 67 57 79 83 115 122 109 136 89 105 84 84 32 200 MB DIV 68 47 60 91 109 73 97 114 131 132 98 109 107 72 36 39 17 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 6 11 6 7 10 17 10 19 26 40 37 28 10 7 LAND (KM) 361 340 339 287 287 342 112 53 230 263 175 118 9 -137 -294 -378 -486 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.4 17.2 18.9 20.8 22.7 24.5 26.2 27.6 28.8 29.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 78.3 79.2 80.1 81.0 81.8 83.1 84.1 84.7 84.9 84.9 84.6 84.3 83.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 8 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 60 70 51 43 51 81 117 116 116 45 32 39 36 3 3 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 23. 26. 28. 30. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 6. 2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 23. 28. 31. 30. 29. 21. 8. -3. -10. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 23. 38. 50. 61. 67. 68. 62. 55. 40. 20. 3. -9. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 78.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 3.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.79 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.49 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 61% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 33.8% 22.3% 10.1% 7.7% 24.5% 45.8% 60.9% Logistic: 4.6% 29.1% 12.6% 6.3% 3.4% 17.0% 33.4% 47.6% Bayesian: 2.0% 20.7% 5.6% 0.9% 1.1% 10.4% 7.0% 8.3% Consensus: 4.5% 27.9% 13.5% 5.8% 4.0% 17.3% 28.7% 38.9% DTOPS: 22.0% 88.0% 65.0% 46.0% 21.0% 73.0% 90.0% 91.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092022 IAN 09/25/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092022 IAN 09/25/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 9( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 54 60 68 83 95 104 110 112 105 99 83 45 33 29 27 18HR AGO 45 44 49 55 63 78 90 99 105 107 100 94 78 40 28 24 22 12HR AGO 45 42 41 47 55 70 82 91 97 99 92 86 70 32 20 16 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 43 58 70 79 85 87 80 74 58 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT